Why Americans Are Betting on Portugal

Nov 14

There’s a conversation happening in American living rooms right now that would have seemed impossible five years ago.

Couples are sitting at kitchen tables with spreadsheets open, weighing European futures. Retirees are video-calling their adult children, explaining why they’re considering a move across the Atlantic. Young families are lying awake at night, wondering if they can actually pull off the dream of raising their kids somewhere safer, slower, more sane.

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And here’s the plot twist: They’re not all talking about Spain anymore.

For as long as most of us can remember, Spain was the answer to the “where in Europe?” question. Barcelona’s architecture, Madrid’s museums, Andalusia’s white villages cascading down hillsides, Spain had the romance, the name recognition, the cache. It was the obvious choice, the safe bet, the one everyone understood at dinner parties.

But something fundamental has shifted in the past eighteen months. And if you’re paying attention to where Americans are actually going, not just where they’re dreaming about, the story is unmistakable.

Portugal isn’t just competing with Spain anymore. It’s winning.

The Numbers Don’t Lie (Even When They Surprise Us)

Portugal’s expat population has exploded by roughly 150% since 2018, and Americans aren’t just part of that wave, we’re leading it. Meanwhile, Spain’s numbers have grown too, but nothing like Portugal’s surge. This isn’t a marginal preference shift. This is a full-scale reallocation of American dreams.

I’ve watched this unfold from the ground in Lisbon, and I’m still sometimes startled by it. The American couple at my local pastelaria who moved from Austin last month. The family from Denver I met at my son’s football match. The retirees from North Carolina who bought the apartment two floors down and are slowly, charmingly, learning Portuguese with their neighbors.

This isn’t a coincidence. This is a pattern. And patterns have reasons.

So let me tell you what’s really driving this westward shift—from someone who’s living it, watching it, and talking to the people making the move every single day.

The Visa Story: When One Door Closes and Another Stays (Cautiously) Open

Let’s talk about the thing nobody wants to discuss at expat meetups but everyone’s thinking about: How do you actually get to stay?

For years, both Portugal and Spain had Golden Visa programs that were basically welcome mats for affluent families. Invest a chunk of money (usually in real estate), get residency, build your European life. It worked beautifully. Both countries benefited. Investors got their European foothold. Everyone won.

Then Spain blinked.

In April 2025, Spain shut down its Golden Visa program entirely. No grandfathering, no transition period, just... closed. If you were in the middle of planning your Spanish chapter and counting on that pathway, you suddenly had no pathway at all.

From Madrid’s perspective, maybe it made sense, rising housing costs, political pressure, changing priorities. But from an investor’s perspective? It was a masterclass in how to destroy confidence overnight.

Portugal took a different route.

Yes, Portugal made changes too. The real estate Golden Visa option is gone, shifted to investment funds instead. And yes, the citizenship timeline just stretched from five years to ten (a change that’s caused plenty of hand-wringing). But here’s the crucial difference: The door is still open. The rules are clear. The pathway exists. You might not love all the conditions, but at least you know what they are.

When you’re making a decision that involves uprooting your family, investing hundreds of thousands of dollars, and rebuilding your entire life, predictability matters. Portugal is offering it. Spain just proved it won’t.

As someone who’s watched both markets closely, I can tell you which one feels like building on bedrock versus building on sand.

The Property Tax Bomb That Hasn’t Exploded (Yet)

Now, if the visa closure was Spain waving a yellow flag, the property tax proposal was an air horn.

Spain recently floated the idea of a 100% property tax on non-EU buyers without residency. Read that again. One. Hundred. Percent. Essentially doubling the purchase price for Americans who want to buy before securing residency.

Is it law yet? No. Might it never happen? Possibly. But the fact that it’s even being discussed at ministerial levels tells you everything about the current climate. This is a government testing how far it can push, how unwelcome it can make foreign investment before the market rebels.

Compare that to Portugal, where despite policy shifts and political debates, real estate prices rose 17.2% in Q2 2025 alone. In places like Cascais—Portugal’s answer to the French Riviera—luxury property values have climbed 35% over five years. That’s not speculation. That’s sustained demand from people who believe in the market’s fundamentals.

Here’s my take as someone in the trenches:

When I help American families evaluate property in both countries, the conversation about Portugal centers on neighborhoods, schools, lifestyle, investment returns. The conversation about Spain increasingly centers on political risk, regulatory uncertainty, and worst-case scenarios.

One of those conversations sounds like building a future. The other sounds like gambling.

The Daily Math: Where Your Dollar Actually Lives

But let’s zoom out from visas and tax codes for a minute. Because here’s the truth most people miss when they’re caught up in Golden Visa research and property price comparisons:

You have to actually live there.

Every. Single. Day.

And this is where Portugal quietly, consistently, undeniably delivers more value.

Portugal’s overall cost of living runs about 5.3% lower than Spain. That might not sound dramatic on paper, but let me translate that into real life:

It’s the difference between a €3 espresso and a €2 espresso, multiplied by 730 espressos per year. It’s the monthly grocery bill that’s €200 less without changing what you eat. It’s the restaurant meals that feel indulgent in Portugal but routine in Spain for the same budget. It’s the private school tuition, the gym membership, the weekend getaway, the dinner with friends, the wine that costs what water costs back home.

Compound that 5% difference over a decade, and you’re looking at tens of thousands of euros. That’s a new car. That’s annual flights home to see family. That’s financial breathing room that lets you actually enjoy your European life instead of constantly calculating whether you can afford it.

But it’s not just about the money.

There’s something softer happening in Portugal that’s harder to quantify but impossible to miss once you experience it. The Portuguese have a word, saudadewhich means a kind of bittersweet longing, a depth of feeling. That emotional intelligence translates into how they welcome newcomers.

I’m not going to romanticize it, you’ll still deal with bureaucracy that makes you want to scream, and not everyone speaks perfect English. But there’s a genuine warmth here, a willingness to meet you halfway, that makes the hard days easier.

The American expat community has grown sophisticated and supportive. There are WhatsApp groups for every neighborhood, Facebook communities that actually help instead of just complain, coffee meetups where people share accountant recommendations and school insights. You’re not pioneering alone. You’re joining a wave that’s already figured out the hard stuff.

Spain has expat communities too, larger, more established ones in some areas. But they also feel more insular, more walled-off from local life. In Portugal, I see more integration. More Portuguese-American friendships. More kids growing up truly bilingual and bicultural rather than living in an English-speaking bubble.

Maybe it’s because Portugal is smaller and still a bit hungry for connection with the outside world. Maybe it’s because the Portuguese have their own history of emigration and understand what it means to be the foreigner. Whatever the reason, it feels different. It feels like belonging is actually possible.

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What This Actually Means If You’re Making the Choice

So here we are. Two incredible countries, separated by a border and a widening gap in American preference.

Spain still has undeniable magic. The food, the art, the energy, the sheer scale of what’s available, it’s not going anywhere. For many people, Spain will always be the right choice.

But for a growing number of Americans, especially those thinking long-term, planning for children’s futures, building generational wealth and stability, Portugal has become the smarter bet.

Not because Spain is bad. Because Portugal is strategic.

It’s the country that kept its visa pathway open while Spain closed its. It’s the market showing strength while Spain proposes punitive taxes. It’s the lifestyle that delivers Old World charm at New World affordability. It’s the community that actually makes you feel welcome instead of tolerated.

From my perspective, having watched hundreds of American families make this decision:

The ones who choose Spain tend to be chasing a specific dream, Barcelona’s architecture, Madrid’s art scene, a particular region they fell in love with on vacation. It’s emotional, romantic, deeply personal. And when it works, it’s beautiful.

The ones who choose Portugal tend to be building a life system—evaluating schools, calculating investment returns, gaming out citizenship timelines, stress-testing their financial plans. It’s strategic, methodical, long-term oriented. And when it works, it’s sustainable.

Both approaches are valid. But only one tends to survive contact with European bureaucracy and political uncertainty.

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The Bottom Line (From Someone Living It)

I’m writing this from a café in Porto where my coffee cost €1.20 and the woman behind the counter knows my order before I say it. My kids are at a school that challenges them academically and doesn’t cost what a college tuition costs.

I could have chosen Spain. Many days, I think about the life I might have had there.

But we chose Portugal. And watching the wave of Americans now making the same choice, I understand why.

This isn’t about Portugal being perfect. It’s about Portugal being smart for right now.

It’s the country that kept its doors open. That offers value without sacrificing quality. That lets you build a European life without constantly wondering if the rules will change tomorrow.

Spain will always be Spain, magnificent, maddening, magnetic. But for Americans looking west across the Atlantic and wondering where to place their bet?

Portugal is quietly, confidently, winning that conversation.

And the numbers are starting to prove it.

References

[1] Portugal Pathways. (2025, November 3). Portugal surges ahead of Spain as Europe’s favourite expat destination.

[2] Global Citizen Solutions. (2025, October 29). Spain Golden Visa Ending: What Does This Mean for Investors?.

[3] A Place in the Sun. (2025, October 17). Property prices rise in Spain but there is no new property tax.

[4] Idealista. (2025, November 7). Urgent property sales in Portugal.

[5] Numbeo. (2025, November 10). Cost Of Living Comparison Between Spain And Portugal.

Emily Thomas